Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.392952 0.453477 0.519080 0.595324 0.681344 0.775235 0.885313
2025-06-15 0.316846 0.398700 0.494191 0.613250 0.757100 0.924641 1.133847
2025-06-22 0.239671 0.328203 0.439094 0.586906 0.777299 1.012676 1.323845
2025-06-29 0.186241 0.277157 0.399193 0.572602 0.809844 1.119816 1.551561
2025-07-06 0.144168 0.233184 0.361147 0.554680 0.835223 1.221464 1.786323
2025-07-13 0.120058 0.210111 0.348145 0.569263 0.907089 1.394529 2.138864
2025-07-20 0.097093 0.184063 0.326241 0.567324 0.955027 1.540288 2.471568
2025-07-27 0.081198 0.166254 0.314108 0.578581 1.024604 1.726369 2.885543
2025-08-03 0.068515 0.151287 0.303998 0.591494 1.098625 1.928022 3.346261
2025-08-10 0.053733 0.128729 0.276183 0.569158 1.110694 2.032373 3.665073
2025-08-17 0.041132 0.107233 0.245951 0.536996 1.100649 2.098442 3.928081
2025-08-24 0.033417 0.094281 0.229930 0.529011 1.133055 2.240463 4.334001
2025-08-31 0.026708 0.082022 0.213437 0.518639 1.162417 2.385815 4.771515
2025-09-07 0.023008 0.076272 0.210218 0.535830 1.249088 2.647070 5.446466
2025-09-14 0.017830 0.064702 0.190673 0.513477 1.251720 2.750151 5.841361
2025-09-21 0.014205 0.056288 0.176838 0.501559 1.274749 2.895815 6.332908
2025-09-28 0.011192 0.048559 0.162774 0.486232 1.287869 3.023023 6.801803
2025-10-05 0.009668 0.045299 0.160284 0.499698 1.368905 3.299665 7.596236
2025-10-12 0.007989 0.040720 0.152735 0.498358 1.414725 3.506414 8.267390
2025-10-19 0.006865 0.037829 0.149635 0.508705 1.490784 3.787386 9.120183
2025-10-26 0.005939 0.035336 0.147176 0.520479 1.572253 4.088977 10.044091
2025-11-02 0.004643 0.030409 0.134957 0.500736 1.568971 4.196520 10.555347
2025-11-09 0.003499 0.025458 0.120953 0.472185 1.537388 4.233921 10.913754